On October 14th, 2021 the Department of Social Protection and SOLAS published An Examination of the Employment Exposures to Brexit. To some extent this is an issue that has slipped down Ireland’s agenda as across the world governments and people struggle with the impact and implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the introduction to this report, the authors say that “Since the decision of the United Kingdom to exit the European Union in 2016, the potential implications of any withdrawal – with or without an EU/UK trade agreement – with regard to trade flows, employment and the wider macroeconomy has been subject to a wide range of debate and analysis.” (p4)
While further on in the introduction they note “The global economy has experienced an abrupt and severe shock at the hands of the COVID-19 pandemic since the first quarter of 2020. In the Irish context, the pandemic and associated public health measures, saw approximately 1.2 million people in receipt of State supports to the labour market, either via the Live Register, Pandemic Unemployment Payment or wage subsidy schemes (Coates et al, 2020). While economic recovery is underway following the successful roll-out of Ireland’s vaccination programme, a significant share of the labour force remains supported by these emergency measures.” (p5)
The report contains three sections: the first explores trade and sectoral exposures; the second examines employment exposures; and the third looks at the impact at the regional level. The fourth section contains the conclusions and in that they note “we endeavoured to profile those persons employed in the most exposed sectors, across each of Ireland’s regions and in doing so, have sought to provide useful analysis for both Intreo – Ireland’s Public Employment Service – and the wider Public Employment Service network, including the Further Education and Training Sector and other regional skills groups as part of their Brexit preparedness efforts.” (p68)
In the first section a number of sectors are deemed particularly vulnerable to any Brexit-related shock due to their dependency on trade with the UK market. For example food and live animals, financial services and manufactured goods. Though the authors also note that “the full impact of Brexit on the Irish labour market is unlikely to be felt for some time to come”. (p24)
While in the second section it says “It is worth noting that being employed in sectors expected to be impacted by Brexit does not directly imply that all of those employed will be affected – the extent of the impact on employment levels is yet to be determined and may apply only to specific cohorts within a sector.” (p27)
Using data from the Labour Force Survey Quarter 4 2019, the three sectors identified as being most severely affected by Brexit were agriculture; financial services; and industry. These are sectors where the percentage of people working full-time was higher (88%) in comparison to the sectors expected to be unaffected (75%). Further on in the report they also noted “At 30%, the share of persons who were self-employed in the severely affected sectors was considerably higher than those in moderately affected sectors (17%) and those sectors considered unaffected by Brexit (10%). Again, this is most likely driven by the high number of farmers in this category.” (p32)
Looking at these figures from an age perspective, the authors note “Overall, those employed in the severely affected sectors had an older age profile than those in either the moderately or unaffected sectors, with 24% aged 55 years and older in the severely affected sectors compared to 18% for each of the other two categories; this is most likely to be driven by the high number of farmers who are in older age cohorts.” (p31)
On page thirty three they note that “At 21%, severely affected sectors had the highest share of employed persons who had, at most, lower secondary education”. While the gender breakdown was 68% male and 32% female.
The third section of the report looks at the regional impact of Brexit. On page 38 it states “The Border region had a higher share of persons employed in severely affected sectors than nationally (16% compared to 12% nationally)”; the next highest was the South-East region at 15%; followed by the Mid-Western region at 13%; the West and South-West regions had 11% each; while Dublin had the lowest at 9%.
In the concluding section the authors state “It is hoped this analysis, by providing insights into the characteristics of those workers in exposed sectors and regions, will inform the development of any targeted interventions, including active labour market programmes (ALMPs) and skills provision, that may be required in the event of a delayed, Brexit-related labour market impact.” (p68)
Further information is available here.