National Risk Assessment 2021


NRA

In 2014 the Department of An Taoiseach started to produce a National Risk Assessment (NRA) to identify risks that Ireland should be aware of and their potential social, economic and environmental impact over time. After the 2008 financial crisis many felt Ireland should be better prepared for the impact and fallout of endemic crisis, and that it would be important to plan for any future shocks. As the COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated, no assessment can fully account for all realities.

For this exercise the Department use categories devised by the World Economic Forum where risks are identified as geopolitical; economic; social; environmental; and / or technological. This article will focus in on two of these risks: economic and social.

Economic Risks

The opening sentence to Section 3.1 of the draft 2021 NRA states “One of the greatest economic challenges arising from COVID-19 is to prevent irreparable economic scarring by which the life chances of individuals are impaired and businesses are irretrievably damaged.”

Later on in this section they note “The labour market has borne the brunt of the economic impacts of the pandemic. COVID-19 adjusted unemployment, including PUP recipients remains high at 18.3% in June. ... within this overall higher rate of unemployment, the effects have been more profound on younger age cohorts and as outlined above public-facing sectors have been more severely impacted overall.”

Given the employment and enterprise supports that have been provided by the State over the past eighteen months the full impact on the labour market of COVID-19 remains unclear. As the public health restrictions have eased the numbers of people on the Pandemic Unemployment Payment have dropped considerably. According to the Department of Social Protection, on August 24th there were 149,436 PUP recipients, down from a peak of 481,331 on February 9th, 2021.

  • A key question/risk to be addressed: what will happen to people who are in receipt of a PUP whose job may not re-emerge and who may not have an entitlement to a Jobseeker’s payment? Previous experience shows that people without an entitlement to a social welfare payment have few if any supports available to them to seek new employment.

The numbers in receipt of the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) have not dropped as dramatically. According to the Revenue Commissioners’ COVID-19 Support Schemes Preliminary Statistics, August 26th, there were 23,800 employers and 277,700 employees in receipt of the EWSS. In January, these numbers were higher at 36,900 and 346,400 respectively, while in July, the latest full month, they were 31,800 and 343,500.

  • Key questions/risks to be addressed are: what will happen to these jobs when these COVID-19 supports end? What supports will be put in place for employees whose jobs may not survive in the medium to longer term? Where will they secure decent and sustainable employment?

Social Risks

Amongst the issues identified under social risks are social cohesion and digital exclusion. Section 4.1 deals with social cohesion and notes “Societies struggle in the aftermath of economic contractions as many people have to cope with being displaced from the labour market. From a situation of near full employment in 2019, the unemployment rate is predicted to average around 16.3% in 2021 before declining to 8.2% in 2022 as the economy is fully re-opened.”

Later on in this section they note “Economic recovery and growth, and social recovery, post-pandemic must be a shared process involving all communities and cohorts of society. Supporting sustainable, inclusive and long-term economic growth, will be required to enable a recovery that is just, fair and leaves nobody behind.”

The term ‘full employment’ is an economics term that is too often assumed to mean that anyone who wants a job can get one. This is not necessarily true, as illustrated by the employment and unemployment statistics for particular groups like Travellers and people with disabilities, which remained considerably higher than the national figures. Amongst the issues raised at INOU events before the pandemic struck, was the lack of suitable, sustainable employment in many rural areas and the social and economic impact it had on both the individual and the wider community. COVID-19 has exacerbate these realities, in particular in areas where tourism plays key social and economic roles.

COVID-19 impacted on different people and communities differently, people on existing social welfare supports were by and large expected to manage on those supports, though the levels introduced for COVID-19 related payments (PUP and C19 Illness Benefit) indicated that many in Government did not view existing payments as adequate. Poverty is a reality in Ireland and unless it is properly addressed, people will be left behind.

  • A key question/risk to be addressed: how will socio-economic inequality and exclusion be addressed to ensure that people for whom it is a daily reality will actually see an improvement in their lives as Ireland emerges out of this pandemic. 

Section 4.5 covers digital exclusion and notes in this section that “The pandemic has acted as a catalyst for digitalisation in some sectors and it is unlikely that economies and societies will return to ‘pre-COVID-19’ patterns. Faced with a future where jobs, education, health, government services and even social interactions may be more dependent on digital technologies than ever before, failing to ensure widespread and trustworthy digital access and effective use risks deepening inequalities, and may hinder countries’ efforts to emerge stronger from the pandemic. An inclusive approach to digital transformation will be vital.”

  • A key question/risk to be addressed: how to support people who do not have the knowledge and skills to engage in a more digitalised world in a manner required to secure their own future and that of their families and communities.

To read the INOU’s full submission to 2021 consultation on the draft NRA please follow this link.